Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 29.962426 33.384540 37.313339 42.225183 48.302427 5.571890e+01 65.696094
2025-06-01 25.006731 29.250907 34.560814 41.920900 52.276867 6.710019e+01 91.716307
2025-06-08 21.694262 26.259836 32.340203 41.472913 55.801590 7.965038e+01 129.674223
2025-06-15 19.334060 24.011279 30.546798 41.023143 59.094229 9.388568e+01 189.389776
2025-06-22 17.629346 22.351919 29.216719 40.853700 62.746107 1.115904e+02 299.310428
2025-06-29 16.151556 20.793687 27.744658 40.051513 64.914726 1.283054e+02 489.237197
2025-07-06 15.537174 20.400916 27.972301 42.193971 74.038338 1.749108e+02 1800.933446
2025-07-13 14.549117 19.319872 26.915682 41.697866 77.032115 2.079742e+02 18097.429858
2025-07-20 13.832222 18.579974 26.316720 41.948212 82.120394 2.633313e+02 NaN
2025-07-27 13.230465 17.959728 25.833996 42.320743 87.873957 3.459014e+02 NaN
2025-08-03 12.627047 17.281107 25.161809 42.139802 91.986933 4.450294e+02 NaN
2025-08-10 12.054775 16.607042 24.421783 41.660756 94.993040 5.682014e+02 NaN
2025-08-17 11.606835 16.116286 23.986209 41.857452 100.964259 8.465088e+02 NaN
2025-08-24 11.145538 15.570847 23.394391 41.576247 105.150088 1.276038e+03 NaN
2025-08-31 10.710565 15.041603 22.783937 41.143776 108.651896 2.074718e+03 NaN
2025-09-07 10.313668 14.553069 22.208680 40.704652 112.065535 4.049615e+03 NaN
2025-09-14 9.977726 14.149924 21.765790 40.539822 116.975960 1.699461e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 9.609216 13.669086 21.128940 39.748931 118.205525 3.209292e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 9.530939 13.694474 21.513243 41.864993 138.742600 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.233379 13.310299 21.021239 41.375573 142.540652 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.016209 13.059797 20.788765 41.622910 152.361733 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.822167 12.840850 20.604906 41.990770 164.226449 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.599744 12.558844 20.264475 41.812194 171.679460 NaN NaN